Thursday, September 6, 2012

New test touted as a life-saver, but is it really?

The Telegraph headline read, "Blood test for Downs 'could avert 300 miscarriages a year'" because more invasive and dangerous tests could be avoided. But how many more children with Down syndrome will be killed as a result? The correspondent writes that Down syndrome affects about 750 babies a year. Presumably he's only talking about the UK.

The article cited Professor Kypros Nicolaides (of the Harris Birthright Research Centre for Foetal Medicine at King’s College Hospital in London) as saying, “For every 10,000 women, 30 carry foetuses with Downs.The current process picks up 27 but miss[es] the other three. With the new test, we will pick up all 30.”

Does that mean all 750 will be aborted? No. Current figures suggest anywhere from 67% to 85% (502 to 637) of babies diagnosed with Down syndrome are aborted. So presumably 10% more Down syndrome babies would be detected before birth because of this "better" test, and none missed -- unless parents opt out of testing. Perhaps 10% more would be aborted.

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